Natural Gas Prices Increase 30-40% In 2026

If you’ve enjoyed the incredibly low natural gas bills we’ve seen in 2024 and most of 2025, I’ve got news: that chapter is closing.Every major forecast, from the Alberta Energy Regulator, Deloitte, and the forward market itself, now points to AECO natural gas prices rising roughly 30–40% next year, taking us from today’s ~$2.20–$2.70/GJ range into a $3.40–$3.80/GJ average in 2026.

That’s still well below the crazy $6–$10 spikes we saw in 2022, but it’s a meaningful jump from the bargain basement prices we’ve had lately. Here’s exactly why this is happening and what you can do about it.

1. LNG Canada Is Finally Here, and It Wants Our Gas

The single biggest game-changer is the LNG Canada terminal in Kitimat, B.C. The first cargo left the dock in June 2025, and the plant is ramping up fast. When it’s running flat out in 2026, it will pull the equivalent of 15–20% of Alberta’s current production straight out to Asia. For years Alberta has been land-locked with too much gas and nowhere new to send it. That era is over. Export demand = higher prices.

2. The U.S. Tariff Cloud Is Lifting

The 10% energy tariffs that hurt Canadian gas prices in early 2025 are scheduled to phase out by mid-2026. Once they’re gone, the discount Alberta gas trades at (the “basis differential”) shrinks dramatically. Analysts expect the gap between Alberta (AECO) and the U.S. benchmark (Henry Hub) to narrow from nearly $2.00 USD/MMBtu today to about $1.00–$1.20 in 2026. That alone adds roughly $0.80–$1.00 per GJ to Alberta prices.

3. Alberta Is Using More of Its Own Gas

• Electricity demand is soaring (data centres, electrification, population growth).

• The oil sands are switching from coal and coke to natural gas for steam and hydrogen.

• New gas-fired power plants are coming online every year.

All of this keeps more molecules at home instead of letting them leak south at fire-sale prices.

4. Premier Danielle Smith Just Opened the Door to New Pipelines

The November 27, 2025 memorandum of understanding between Alberta and the new federal government fast-tracks new export corridors (including a possible northern oil and gas route to the Pacific). Even though those projects are years away, the signal is clear: Alberta is serious about getting better prices for its resources.

What This Means for Your Bill in 2026

• Variable rate customers: expect the commodity portion of your bill to be 30–40% higher next winter than this winter.

• A typical Calgary home using 100 GJ per year could see an extra $150–$250 on the gas side alone in 2026.

• Fixed-rate plans being offered right now (3-, 5-, or even 7-year terms) are still locking in under $4.00/GJ in most cases, a level that suddenly looks very attractive.

The Bottom Line

The days of $1–$2 natural gas are behind us. 2026 is the year the market flips from oversupply to balanced-to-tight. That’s actually good news for Alberta jobs and royalties in the long run, but it does mean higher heating bills starting next winter.

If you’ve been thinking about locking in a fixed rate “someday,” 2026 is the year that “someday” arrives. The best deals are on the table right now, before the crowd rushes in once the first cold snap of 2025–26 hits.

Have questions about fixed vs. variable, or want to see the current fixed-rate offers side-by-side? Drop us a message or comment below, happy to run the numbers for your exact usage.

Stay warm (and let’s get ahead of this one together),

THE TEAM

Alberta's Most Experienced Energy Consultants