Alberta's ROLR Is Almost Certainly Going Up In 2027
- Dec 3
- 3 min read
Updated: 2 days ago
If you’re one of the roughly 1 in 4 Alberta households still on the default electricity rate (the Rate of Last Resort, or RoLR), I have good news and not-so-good news.
The good news: Your rate is locked in at about 12 ¢/kWh until the very last day of 2026. No surprises, no $300 spikes like we saw with the old Regulated Rate Option a few years ago.
The not-so-good news: When the Alberta Utilities Commission re-evaluates and resets the RoLR for January 2027 – December 2028, almost every credible forecast points to an increase of 4–10%. That means the new RoLR will land somewhere between 12.5 ¢ and 13.3 ¢ per kWh, with the most likely number right around 12.9–13.0 ¢.
For a typical Calgary or Edmonton home using 600–700 kWh a month, that’s an extra $4–$10 per month ($50–$120 per year) starting in 2027.
Why the Increase Is Coming
The RoLR isn’t made up in a back room, it’s built from real wholesale costs plus a buffer. Here are the four big drivers pushing it higher:
Natural gas prices are rising 30–40% in 2026. About 60% of Alberta’s electricity still comes from natural gas plants. When AECO gas jumps from ~$2.50/GJ today to $3.40–$3.80/GJ next year (see my last post), that flows straight through to higher wholesale power prices.
Demand keeps climbing faster than anyone predicted. Population growth, electric vehicles, new data centres, and the oil sands switching to electricity for steam and hydrogen are adding hundreds of megawatts of new load every year. The AESO now expects average demand to hit 7,500 MW by 2027, that’s like adding another city the size of Red Deer every couple of years.
Renewables are great, until the sun sets and the wind stops. We’re adding thousands of megawatts of wind and solar (awesome for summer daytime prices), but we still need fast-ramping gas plants in the evening and during cold snaps. Those “peaker” plants are expensive to keep on standby, and the cost gets baked into the RoLR.
The 10% cap is real, but it’s a one-way ratchet. The government built in a rule that the RoLR can only move ±10% each two year cycle. That protects you from huge jumps… but it also means when costs are clearly rising, the rate has to go up to the top of the allowed band eventually.
The Math the AUC Will Use (Simplified)
Current wholesale Pool forecast for 2027–2028: ~5.2–5.8 ¢/kWh
Add capacity, transmission, losses, and hedging buffer: ~7.0–7.5 ¢/kWh
Retailers then mark it up for risk and profit lands around 12.8–13.3 ¢/kWh
The 10% cap from today’s ~12.03 ¢ means the absolute maximum allowed is 13.23¢ unless the AUC declares extraordinary circumstances.
Bottom line: We’re going to be very close to that ceiling.
What This Means for You Right Now
If you’re on the RoLR today you are paying the highest possible price for electricity and it's going to go up!
EVERYONE needs to leave the rate of last resort. If you don't have the time or energy to figure out what your options are, we are here for you.
Want us to run the numbers for your exact address and usage to see how much you could save by switching before the next RoLR reset? Just reply or send us a message, happy to do it for free.
Stay warm and stay ahead of the curve,
THE TEAM
Alberta's Most Experienced Energy Retailers
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